Fiorentina vs Atalanta
2016/17 Italian Serie A.
Date: Sunday, 16 October 2016
Kick-Off: 11:30 UK,
Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence).
Fiorentina are a tough side to peg down this season. They’re 14th in the table, but they dropped that low without being particularly bad. They’ve had a really tough start to the season, so La Viola will be hoping this clash with Atalanta will see them claim three more points. When you look at their head to head record, it’s easy to see why we’re backing the hosts.
Not only have Atalanta been poor on their last few trips to the Stadio Artemio Franchi, but their head to head record against this weekend’s opponents is awful. Fiorentina have came out on top in the last nine meetings. Can they add to that winning run and move a little further up the table? Paulo Sousa and his team should really be pushing for the European spots.
So far, Fiorentina have mostly played sides who are on the hunt for European places too. That has clearly impacted their results, and it’s a big factor in them being so low down. Not only have they played a game less so far, but five of their six games have been against teams who are seventh or higher. Their record of two wins, two draws and two defeats isn’t really that bad when you think about it. Plus, that means they have a batch of games against lesser sides coming up. This game could be their launching point for a strong run of form.
All of their defeats have been away from the Artemio Franchi, they’ve won two and drew one at home so far. They’ve seen off surprise package Chievo and third placed Roma, drawing 0-0 with AC Milan. They’re yet to concede a goal at home in the league, which is why just two strikes have been enough for them to pick up seven points. That’s an average of 0.67 scored per game.
Their scoring worries should be eased against Atalanta. This is a much weaker defence than they’ve faced of late. They’ve conceded in every match away from home, and they let in an average of 2 goals a game on the road. They’re a very all or nothing team, winning three and losing four in their matches so far.
One notable thing about La Dea is their lack of discipline. In their last six visits here, they’ve been given three red cards and 19 yellows. They have been a little too aggressive this season, as they make an average of 16 fouls per game away. Atalanta could rack up quite a few cards in this clash, so we like the look of over 5.5 cards in the game at 5/6 with bet365.
With their strong record at home and against Atalanta, LA Viola are our tip to win this game. They’re 3/4 with bet365 to claim all three points. They may have some scoring issues, but Fiorentina did score twice in their only game against mid-table opposition. Atalanta also concede from 18% of the shots they face away from home, so we see Sousa’s side bagging a couple.
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: Head-to-head statistics
Fiorentina have scored at least two goals in their last 10 home games against Atalanta.
The Viola have also won their past nine meetings with La Dea.
Fiorentina are undefeated in all but one of their last 12 home games.
They have kept a clean sheet in their last four matches at the Stadio Artemio Franchi.
Atalanta’s last win in this fixture was on April 29, 2012.
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: Prediction
Gian Piero Gasperini’s troops will be by far the more confident coming into this game, especially after earning a hard-fought win over Scudetto contenders Napoli. Fiorentina are a side in flummox right now, and Paulo Sousa, despite the team’s solid showings in Europe, is nonetheless under pressure to make sure that the team start winning in Serie A, too. As noted before, the Viola have had a tough domestic fixture list, but their lack of offensive output – with just six goals – is also a major source of concern.
Although Atalanta haven’t won here in over four years, La Dea will definitely trouble the Viola. Discipline for the visitors, though, is a major issue, and Gasperini will need everyone to keep cool heads to make sure they finish with all 11 men on the pitch. Still, Fiorentina’s impressive record in this fixture should not be discounted, and the hosts are expected to rebound from a bad patch by picking up their third win of the season. Their home clean sheet record, however, just may come under threat.
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: Betting tips
Fiorentina to WIN at 3/4 (1.75)
Both teams to score at 19/20 (1.95)
Over 2.5 goals at evens (2.00).
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